Brazil Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall as Markets Reprice Easing Odds

Overview

• IBGE reported a 0.3% month‑on‑month decline in September retail sales versus a Valor Data median forecast of a 0.3% rise, with sales up 0.8% year over year.
• Six of eight restricted retail categories contracted, including supermarkets and fuel, while only personal and household goods and pharmaceuticals posted gains.
• The broader ‘expanded’ retail gauge, which includes vehicles, construction materials and cash‑and‑carry, edged up 0.2% in the month, with vehicle sales up 0.8% and construction materials down 0.1%.
• Brazilian assets cooled as the Ibovespa closed down 0.3% at 157,162, with currency moves influenced by the end of the 43‑day U.S. government shutdown and uncertain Federal Reserve guidance.
• The Finance Ministry cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.2%, and Banco do Brasil’s adjusted profit fell about 60% in the third quarter as its shares dropped more than 5% intraday.