Brazil Records Highest First‑Round Abstention Since 1998 at 21.08%

Overview

• The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral reported that 33.4 million registered voters, or 21.08%, did not vote in the first round held on Sunday, October 4, 2026, the highest rate since 1998.
• A Datafolha survey of 2,520 people conducted Oct. 6–7 found that absent voters gave multiple reasons with largest shares for travel (19%) and illness or health problems (18%), while 13% cited disinterest and others mentioned work, missing documents and distance to polling places.
• Absence was uneven across regions with the Southeast accounting for about 15 million missing voters (22.7%), the Centro‑Oeste at 21.7% and the Northeast at 18.4%, creating varied mobilization challenges for campaigns.
• Scholars warn that higher turnout in the runoff will not automatically help a single candidate because the political profile of those who stayed home matters and studies suggest Lula’s older and lower‑income base is more likely to have been absent.
• Voters who missed the first round may still vote in the second round on Oct. 25 if they present a regularized voter ID, but those who do not justify or regularize their absence risk a small fine and restrictions until they fix their status.