Overview

• Planning Ministry’s bimonthly report lifts the bloqueio by R$1.4 billion to R$12.1 billion and keeps contingenciamento at zero after higher forecasts for BPC, unemployment benefits and Aldir Blanc transfers.
• The central-government primary deficit projection was revised to R$30.2 billion (0.24% of GDP), leaving about R$800 million of space within the fiscal target’s tolerance band; including precatórios, the shortfall is estimated at R$73.5 billion.
• Budgeted precatórios fell by R$5.4 billion after CNJ cancellations of titles without final judgment, which are excluded from the formal target but still count in the primary result.
• The Finance Ministry warns that a 15% Selic is slowing activity and trimming tax receipts, with revenues administered by the tax authority down R$12 billion, partly offset by a R$6.9 billion increase in expected dividends to R$48.8 billion from state assets.
• The government is pressing Congress to approve MP 1.303 by October to standardize taxes on financial instruments, a move that could yield up to R$15 billion in 2026, as market economists call for deeper structural restraint of mandatory spending.