Overview

• The bloqueio on discretionary spending increased by R$1.4 billion to R$12.1 billion, attributed to higher estimates for BPC, control-of-flow obligations, and abono and unemployment insurance.
• The primary deficit forecast rose to R$30.2 billion, which sits just inside the fiscal rule’s tolerance band, and the government kept contingenciamento at zero.
• Without exclusions such as part of precatórios, the deficit would be R$73.5 billion, while the projection for dividends and participations was raised by R$6.9 billion to R$48.8 billion.
• Finance Ministry officials urge approval of MP 1.303/2025 by October, proposing a 5% tax on new issues of LCI, LCA, CRI, CRA and incentivized debentures and adding caps and limits to select benefits.
• Dario Durigan flagged weaker tax receipts under a prolonged 15% Selic, as market economists criticized the lack of structural spending cuts and Mansueto Almeida argued for roughly R$250 billion in fiscal adjustment.