Brazil Posts US$7.74 Billion Trade Surplus in September

Overview

• The Ministry of Development's trade office reported on Tuesday that Brazil recorded a US$7.741 billion surplus in September after exports reached US$34.42 billion and imports fell to US$26.68 billion.
• Crude oil was the main driver of the monthly gain, with sales of raw oil rising about 77.3% to roughly US$6.5 billion due to higher volumes and higher average prices.
• The MDIC revised its full‑year 2026 outlook downward on October 6, cutting projected exports to US$382.5 billion, imports to US$298.1 billion, and the year‑end surplus to US$84.4 billion because oil prices have eased from spring peaks.
• Political events have shifted capital flows, with foreign investors making a record single‑day net purchase of R$10.06 billion in Brazilian equities after the first election round and the real strengthening to about R$4.97 per dollar.
• Broader risks persist because Middle East disruptions tightened stocks earlier in 2026 and Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned inventories could take up to two years to rebuild, meaning oil volatility and higher U.S. import demand—the U.S. trade deficit rose to US$105.6 billion in August—could swing Brazil’s trade path for the rest of the year.