Brazil Posts Second-Largest Dollar Outflow Since 1982 in 2025

Overview

• Preliminary Central Bank data show a net foreign‑currency outflow of US$33.316 billion in 2025, the second-largest in the historical series that began in 1982.
• The financial account drove the result with a US$82.467 billion net exit, partially offset by a US$49.151 billion net inflow on the commercial side.
• December registered a US$13.562 billion net outflow, influenced by seasonal dividend remittances and stronger import demand, though smaller than December 2024.
• Despite the exodus, the real appreciated in 2025 as high Brazilian rates and a softer U.S. dollar sustained favorable positioning; the Central Bank limited spot operations to two US$1 billion ‘casadão’ sales and rolled FX swaps today.
• The dollar closed near R$5.386 in a low-liquidity session as ADP reported 41,000 U.S. private jobs added in December, with investors awaiting Friday’s payrolls and monitoring domestic institutional and election-related risks into early 2026.