Brazil Posts Record October Trade Surplus Driven by Oil

Overview

• The trade report, released Friday by Secex and the MDIC, showed a US$9.32 billion surplus for October 2026 with exports of US$37.81 billion and imports of US$28.49 billion.
• Sales of petroleum and other extractive products led the gain as extractive exports jumped 53.5% and crude oil shipments rose 122.6% on higher volumes and a 36.7% rise in prices.
• Exports to the United States surged 87% to US$4.32 billion in October, while exports to China fell 5.3% because beef shipments dropped after a Chinese import quota was exhausted.
• Imports climbed 14.8% driven by higher fuel, consumer and intermediate goods purchases while capital goods rose only modestly, signaling limited pickup in investment demand.
• The MDIC revised its full‑year 2026 surplus forecast down to US$84.4 billion from US$90 billion, a view that still sits above some market estimates and leaves scope for further revision depending on oil and bilateral flows.