Brazil Posts R$25.2 Billion Primary Surplus in April

The monthly improvement reflects stronger tax receipts but does not undo a worsening year‑to‑date position that heightens pressure on meeting the government’s 2026 fiscal goal.

Overview

Tesouro Nacional reported a primary surplus of R$25.2 billion for April 2026, a result slightly above market median and the best April outcome since 2022; a primary surplus means tax and other revenues exceeded non‑interest spending that month.
Tax receipts rose 5.8% in real terms in April and drove the gain, with IOF, import duties, income tax, CSLL and Cofins singled out by the treasury as the main contributors.
Despite April’s surplus, the January–April accumulated primary surplus plunged to about R$8.7 billion from R$73.2 billion in the same period of 2025, reflecting larger mandatory outlays and much lower dividend transfers from state firms such as Caixa.
The 12‑month accumulated primary deficit widened to R$130.6 billion (0.97% of GDP) and the government’s bimestral report projects a full‑year shortfall of R$60.3 billion for 2026, with the 2023 fiscal framework’s tolerance band and legal abatements (about R$63.5 billion) shaping formal compliance calculations.
The main near‑term risks to public finances are rising pension, personnel and precatório payments and reduced state‑company dividends, which could force tougher revenue measures or spending adjustments and will be watched closely by markets for their effect on borrowing costs and fiscal credibility.