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5h ago

Brazil Posts R$14.5 Billion September Primary Deficit as Year-to-Date Shortfall Tops R$100 Billion

Independent analysts estimate roughly R$27.1 billion in additional actions may be needed in the fourth quarter to formally hit the 2025 target.

O presidente Lula e o ministro da Fazenda, Fernando Haddad: déficit primário passou de R$ 100 bilhões em nove meses.
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Overview

  • The September result was the worst for the month since 2020 and far above market expectations of about a R$6 billion gap.
  • Through September, the Government Central posted a R$100.4 billion primary deficit, with the 12‑month shortfall at R$35.6 billion, or 0.32% of GDP.
  • Primary spending rose 5.7% in real terms in September versus a 0.6% rise in net revenue, driven by discretionary health outlays and other payments including precatórios.
  • Social Security remains the main drag with a year‑to‑date negative balance near R$286.3 billion, offset in part by a combined R$185.9 billion surplus from the Treasury and the Central Bank.
  • Under the fiscal framework, a 0.25%‑of‑GDP tolerance and R$43.3 billion in precatório exclusions allow an effective deficit near R$74.3 billion, and the Treasury projects a R$73.5 billion result while saying the path is consistent with the rule.