Overview
- The trade balance, which Secex reported Tuesday, showed a US$7.74 billion surplus for September with exports of about US$34.42 billion and imports of US$26.68 billion.
- Export gains were led by crude oil, fuels, soy and copper with crude oil exports up 77.3% and copper exports up 74.2%, driven by higher production and earlier price spikes tied to the Middle East conflict.
- Shipments to the United States rose 31.9% in September, helped by exempted items such as aircraft, beef and coffee, while exports to China fell 7.6% because beef shipments plunged 93.5% after China exhausted its 2026 quota and applied a 55% extracota tariff.
- Mdic revised its 2026 surplus forecast down to US$84.4 billion from US$90.0 billion, citing the recent accommodation of international commodity prices, and noted a sharp drop in capital goods imports of 29.8% partly due to base effects in platforms and weaker industrial investment.
- The shift in trade flows has wider effects because higher commodity prices earlier in the year lifted values, recent price stabilization lowered full‑year outlooks, and an enlarged U.S. trade deficit reported for August adds political pressure on bilateral trade policy ahead of U.S. midterm contests.