Brazil Posts $7.4 Billion August Trade Surplus as U.S. Data and Tariffs Reshape Flows

Overview

• The Ministry of Development (Secex/MDIC) reported a US$7.39 billion trade surplus for August on Friday, driven by US$33.16 billion in exports and US$25.76 billion in imports.
• Crude oil and soy were the main contributors to August’s surplus, with extractive and agribusiness sectors showing the largest monthly gains.
• U.S. data this week increased pressure on global markets: the Bureau of Economic Analysis recorded a US trade deficit of US$88.6 billion for July and U.S. payrolls on Friday showed 162,000 jobs added, a combination that lifted odds of a Fed rate rise and strengthened the dollar.
• Trade policy is weighing on bilateral flows because U.S. tariffs announced in late July can raise duties on some Brazilian goods up to 37.5%, and Brazil’s exports to the United States are down 9.7% year-to-date through August.
• Foreign investors pulled a record R$18.12 billion from B3 in August according to Elos Ayta, a shift that halved the year-to-date net inflow and reflects investor re-pricing of Brazil risk as commodity prices, tariffs, and U.S. monetary prospects move capital around.