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Overview
- The first 2026 Boletim Focus shows the median IPCA forecast for 2025 down to 4.31%—an eighth straight trim—while the 2026 estimate nudged up to 4.06%.
- Market pricing points to gradual monetary easing, with the Selic projected to fall from 15% at the end of 2025 to 12.25% by December 2026, then to 10.50% in 2027 and 9.75% in 2028.
- Growth expectations remain subdued, with GDP seen at 2.26% in 2025 and slowing to 1.80% in 2026.
- The exchange-rate outlook is steady, with the dollar expected to close 2026 near R$5.50 for a 12th consecutive week.
- Fresh S&P Global data show Brazil’s Services PMI rising to 53.7 in December and the composite index at 52.1, marking the first private‑sector expansion in nine months.