Brazil Markets Swing on Super Wednesday as Copom Holds Selic at 15%

Overview

• The central bank kept the benchmark Selic rate at 15%, and investors turned to the communiqué for clues on whether rate cuts could start in January or slip to March.
• Traders priced an expected 25-basis-point Fed cut later today, with roughly 87% odds, after a stronger JOLTS reading near 7.7 million openings nudged Treasury yields higher.
• Senator Flávio Bolsonaro declared his 2026 pre-candidacy irreversible, pressuring local assets as the real hovered in the mid‑R$5.40s, DI rates edged up, and equities swung.
• The Chamber advanced the so‑called dosimetry bill that reduces penalties for January 8 convictions, seen as an alternative route to amnesty and a headline that briefly steadied domestic markets.
• A wider Brazil–U.S. rate gap could support carry flows into the real, though political risk kept volatility elevated, while iron‑ore strength tied to China’s record trade surplus buoyed Vale and helped limit Ibovespa losses.