Overview

• The Boletim Focus showed the 2025 IPCA median eased to 4.72% in a third consecutive decline, while the year-end Selic projection held at 15%.
• The real recovered part of Friday’s losses, with the dollar spot trading back below R$5.50 in early deals after the weekend de‑escalation in U.S.–China rhetoric.
• Long-dated DI rates inched lower in a thin session due to the U.S. holiday, partially unwinding Friday’s stress in local credit and rates.
• The Central Bank scheduled two FX line auctions at 10:30 and a 40,000‑contract swap rollover at 11:30 to smooth November maturities and support liquidity.
• Focus medians kept 2025 GDP growth at 2.16% and the year-end dollar near R$5.45, as investors look to this week’s services, retail and IBC‑Br data for fresh cues.