Overview

• The Ibovespa fell 1.08% to 143,950 on Oct. 2 and the real weakened to about R$5.339 per dollar, marking a third straight session of dollar gains against the currency.
• Weak U.S. private‑sector jobs data from ADP showing a 32,000 loss and a partial federal shutdown reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, with major U.S. indexes setting fresh records.
• Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies approved a bill to exempt monthly incomes up to R$5,000 from income tax, with an estimated R$31.3 billion revenue loss in 2026, proposed offsets such as a minimum tax on high incomes and taxation of overseas dividends, and the measure now heads to the Senate.
• Headlines about a potential nationwide zero‑fare bus policy briefly drove a jump in domestic risk premia, lifting futures rates and weighing on stocks, before later reporting suggested the measure is unlikely to be implemented in the near term.
• Despite global easing bets, Brazil’s 15% Selic and hawkish central bank signals kept local futures rates elevated, while year‑to‑date foreign inflows into B3 remained positive at over R$26 billion through Sept. 26.