Brazil Markets End 2025 With Softer Inflation Views, Producer Index in Deflation

Overview

• GDP projections hold at 2.26% for 2025 and 1.80% for 2026 in the latest Focus survey.
• The current‑account deficit forecast for 2025 widened to US$74.85 billion, marking a 12th consecutive increase.
• FGV’s IGP‑M dipped 0.01% in December and finished the year down 1.05%, reflecting weaker wholesale and producer prices.
• Home prices tracked by Abecip/FGV’s IGMI‑R rose 17.14% over 12 months to November, while FGV’s industrial confidence improved to 92.9 in December.
• With liquidity thin, the dollar traded near R$5.56–R$5.58 as investors watched upcoming Fed minutes, Brazilian labor figures, and Treasury fiscal and debt reports.