Overview

• Brazil’s Central Bank projects 1.5% GDP growth for 2026 in its Monetary Policy Report and notes a cooling labor market that could allow rate cuts if disinflation holds.
• Preliminary inflation (IPCA‑15) rose 0.48% in September, taking 12‑month inflation to 5.32%, with improved core composition reinforcing a gradual easing trend.
• U.S. PCE inflation printed at 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, broadly in line with expectations, and Treasuries eased as markets maintained a measured path for Fed cuts.
• The real firmed slightly and DI futures dipped early in the session, reflecting the benign U.S. data and partial reversal of the prior day’s pressure on Brazilian assets.
• Markets are watching for a possible Banco Central dollar sale of up to US$600 million or a ‘casadão’ to manage unrolled FX swaps, as tariff actions by President Trump and ongoing court review keep trade risks in focus.