Brazil Market Trims 2026 Inflation Outlook to 4.05% in Focus Survey

Overview

• The new median sits 0.45 percentage point below the 4.5% ceiling of the inflation target.
• Expectations for 2027 and 2028 held at 3.80% and 3.50%, indicating steady medium‑term views.
• The smoothed 12‑month IPCA measure rose for a third week to 4.04%.
• The median forecast for the Selic rate at end‑2026 remained at 12.25%.
• IBGE reported 2025 IPCA at 4.26% under the continuous targeting regime centered at 3% with a ±1.5 point tolerance.