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Overview
- Banco Central’s Boletim Focus cut the 2025 IPCA median to 4.46% from 4.55%, slipping below the 4.5% ceiling of the continuous 3% ±1.5pp target.
- October IPCA came in at 0.09%, the weakest for the month since 1998, with the drop driven mainly by lower residential electricity tariffs after a flag change.
- Market projections for the Selic show 15% at end-2025, with Copom signaling a prolonged hold and readiness to adjust policy if needed.
- Inflation medians for 2026–2028 were unchanged at 4.20%, 3.80% and 3.50%, while the 2025 GDP growth forecast stayed at 2.16%.
- Activity softened as the IBC-Br fell 0.24% in September and contracted 0.9% in the third quarter, pointing to cooler momentum into year-end.