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2d ago

Brazil Logs Second-Largest 2025 Dollar Outflow With Real Easing, Ibovespa Down

High local rates together with a softer global dollar helped the currency strengthen through 2025 despite a US$33.3 billion net exit.

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Overview

  • Preliminary central bank data show a total net outflow of US$33.316 billion in 2025, the second‑largest since the series began in 1982.
  • The financial account posted a US$82.467 billion outflow, partially offset by a US$49.151 billion commercial inflow, while December saw a US$13.562 billion net outflow driven by year‑end remittances ahead of tax changes.
  • Despite the exodus, the real appreciated over 2025 as high domestic interest rates and a weaker global dollar supported favorable positioning in derivatives.
  • The central bank’s direct action was limited to two US$1 billion spot sales via the casadão mechanism during the year.
  • On Jan. 7, the dollar closed near R$5.3869 and the Ibovespa fell about 1% as thin liquidity met softer U.S. labor readings (ADP +41,000; JOLTS ~7.1 million) and Venezuela‑related tensions, with short‑dated local rates easing and longer maturities edging higher ahead of a Treasury auction.