Overview

• Official bimestral report raised the 2025 primary deficit forecast to R$30.2 billion (0.24% of GDP), which still sits within the fiscal framework’s tolerance band, so no automatic contingenciamento was triggered.
• Authorities attributed the bigger spending bloqueio to upward surprises in mandatory outlays, notably a R$2.9 billion jump in BPC estimates, alongside higher unemployment benefits and other controlled‑flow expenses.
• The Finance Ministry said weaker activity lowered the tax‑collection outlook by R$2.4 billion and pressed Congress to pass MP 1.303/2025 on financial‑asset taxation and a review of tax benefits to bolster revenue.
• Projected dividend income from state companies was increased by R$6.9 billion to R$48.8 billion for 2025, with larger transfers expected from BNDES and an extra payout from Caixa.
• Copom minutes reaffirmed the Selic at 15% for a “bastante prolongado” period in an environment of unanchored inflation expectations and cited U.S. tariff risks, while outside voices such as Mansueto Almeida argue Brazil still needs a structural fiscal adjustment of roughly R$250 billion.