Overview

• The executive increased the discretionary spending block to R$ 12.1 billion from R$ 10.7 billion in the fourth bimonthly budget report.
• The 2025 primary deficit forecast rose to R$ 30.2 billion (about 0.24% of GDP), which still fits within the fiscal rule’s tolerance range.
• Copom minutes signaled the 15% Selic may stay in place for a prolonged period and left the door open to further hikes if needed.
• Fazenda’s Dario Durigan said the restrictive rate is slowing activity and lowering tax projections, while urging Congress to approve MP 1.303/2025 by October, a move that could yield up to R$ 15 billion in 2026.
• The government raised expected dividends to R$ 48.8 billion, even as market economists call for deeper structural adjustment, with Mansueto Almeida estimating a need near R$ 250 billion.