Overview

• The government raised the 2025 budget block by R$1.4 billion to R$12.1 billion, according to the fourth bimonthly revenue and spending report.
• The same report revised the projected 2025 deficit to R$30.2 billion and recorded no contingenciamento.
• Under the fiscal framework, a tolerance of 0.25% of GDP—about R$30.9 billion—defines how far the primary result can deviate from the target.
• At a BTG Pactual event, economist Mansueto Almeida said Brazil needs roughly R$250 billion in fiscal adjustment in the most optimistic scenario.
• He warned nominal deficits could average 8.5% of GDP and urged curbing mandatory spending growth beyond administrative reform, noting payroll costs fell from about 4.3% to 3.3% of GDP by the end of the previous administration.