Brazil Jobless Rate Sets New Low, Short-End Yields Climb Before Fed Minutes

Overview

• Brazil’s unemployment fell to 5.2% in the quarter to November, the lowest in the series, with records for total employed and formal payrolls.
• Short-term DI rates rose as traders pushed back odds of a January Selic cut, while longer maturities eased in thin year-end trading.
• The latest Focus survey trimmed IPCA expectations to 4.32% for 2025 and 4.05% for 2026, with the Selic held at 15% and a median 12.25% forecast for end‑2026.
• FGV’s IGP‑M ended 2025 down 1.05%, signaling softer cost pressures into 2026.
• The dollar hovered around R$5.55–R$5.58 on Monday and dipped early Tuesday, as investors awaited Fed minutes and digested a wider November public‑sector deficit.