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Brazil Jobless Rate Holds at 5.6% Record as Earnings and Formal Work Hit Highs

Strong labor readings tempered expectations for an early Selic cut.

Overview

  • IBGE reported unemployment at 5.6% for July–September, with 6.045 million people unemployed, the lowest figure in the series since 2012.
  • The employed population stayed at a record 102.4 million, the mass of real habitual earnings reached a record R$354.6 billion, and average income was R$3,507, up 4% year over year.
  • Caged showed a net gain of 213,002 formal jobs in September, beating forecasts but 15.5% below September 2024, taking the stock of carteira assinada jobs to about 48.91 million.
  • All five major sectors posted positive balances in September, led by services (+106,606), with industry, commerce, construction, and agriculture also adding jobs.
  • Informality remained high at 37.8% of the employed, while the Ibovespa closed at 149,540 points and futures rates eased modestly after the data.