Overview

• Annual inflation ticked up to 5.17% over 12 months, staying above the Central Bank’s 3% target and outside the 1.5%–4.5% tolerance band.
• Residential electricity jumped 10.31% after the Itaipu bonus ended and the red tariff (patamar 2) remained in force, driving the housing group up 2.97% and contributing 0.45 percentage point to the IPCA, with power alone adding 0.41 point.
• Food and beverages fell 0.26% for a fourth straight month, led by declines in tomatoes, onions, garlic, potatoes and rice, helping to temper the headline rise.
• The INPC, which tracks lower‑income households and indexes many wage adjustments, rose 0.52% in September.
• The reading came in slightly below median forecasts, diffusion and core measures eased, São Luís saw the biggest local surge with electricity up 27.30%, and the Central Bank holds Selic at 15% as it projects a return to the target range in early 2026.