Overview

• IBGE reported the IPCA rose 0.48% in September, lifting the 12‑month rate to 5.17% after August’s −0.11% deflation.
• Housing led the index with a 2.97% gain as residential electricity surged 10.31%, contributing 0.41 percentage point; the red tariff flag level 2 added R$7.87 per 100 kWh.
• Food and beverages fell 0.26% for a fourth month, with sharp declines in tomato, onion, garlic, potato and rice moderating overall inflation.
• The result came slightly below the market median forecast of 0.52%, and diffusion eased, indicating price pressures were concentrated rather than broad‑based.
• With inflation above the CMN tolerance band, the central bank kept the Selic at 15% in September and projects a return to the target interval in early 2026; São Luís posted the highest local jump, with electricity up 27.30%.