Brazil Inflation Forecast Edges Lower as Ibovespa Hits 150,000 Intraday High

Overview

• Brazil’s weekly Boletim Focus trimmed the 2025 IPCA projection to 4.55% for a sixth straight week and lowered longer‑term expectations to 3.5%.
• The market’s median still sees the Selic at 15% at end‑2025 as the Copom meets this week, and BC chief Gabriel Galípolo signaled rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon.
• Investors are prioritizing high‑quality fixed income and private credit given elevated borrowing costs and inflation that remains above the 3% target.
• The Ibovespa crossed 150,000 points intraday for the first time, supported by global risk appetite and local earnings momentum even with mixed commodity moves.
• A 34‑day U.S. government shutdown is blocking official data releases, pushing markets to lean on private PMIs and Federal Reserve speeches ahead of Brazil’s rate decision.