Overview

• The Banco Central’s Focus survey trimmed the 2025 IPCA median to 4.81%, while respondents still see the Selic at 15% at year-end and inflation at 4.28% in 2026.
• Copom kept the policy rate at 15% and signaled a prolonged restrictive stance, with director Diogo Guillen noting activity is moderating even as the labor market stays resilient.
• The Firmus survey of non‑financial companies showed the median 2025 IPCA view falling from 5.5% to 5.0%, with firms projecting GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 and reporting largely unchanged credit supply.
• BC president Gabriel Galípolo defended the Focus survey, presented Firmus as a complementary tool, and said expectations remain unanchored and that there is “muito esforço” ahead to bring inflation to the 3% goal.
• Following an electoral setback for Javier Milei, O Globo reported a sharp capital outflow in Argentina, mortgage rates raised to roughly 15% above inflation, Banco Nación canceling a New York bond marketing trip, and a U.S. support line of about US$20 billion being pledged.