Overview

• The Boletim Focus trimmed the median IPCA projection for 2025 to 4.81% from 4.83% and for 2026 to 4.28%, with GDP seen at 2.16% in 2025 and 1.80% in 2026.
• Market medians kept the Selic at 15.00% for end‑2025 and 12.25% for end‑2026, while the end‑2025 dollar forecast eased to R$5.48.
• The BC’s Firmus survey of nonfinancial companies showed a larger downward revision, with the 2025 IPCA median falling to 5.0% and firms expecting GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026.
• BC president Gabriel Galípolo said inflation is converging slowly to the 3% target and that policy must remain restrictive with vigilance and persistence.
• Retail signals were mixed as FGV’s commerce confidence ticked up to 84.7 but stayed pessimistic and CNC’s merchant confidence fell 5% to 97.2, while long‑term interest futures edged lower.