Brazil Industry and Trade Confidence Falls Again in October

Overview

• FGV’s Industrial Confidence Index slipped 0.7 point to 89.8 in October, marking the seventh decline of 2025.
• The industry Expectations Index dropped to 85.4, the weakest since June 2020, as the Current Situation Index eased to 94.2 and confidence fell in 7 of 19 segments.
• FGV flagged excess inventories at 106.4, the highest since November 2023, with capacity utilization down to 81.9% based on surveys conducted October 1–24.
• CNC’s Commerce Confidence Index fell 1.1% to 95.7, the fourth straight monthly drop, staying below 100 for a second month at its lowest since May 2021.
• In retail, current conditions fell 5.4% month over month and investment intentions dipped 0.4%, expectations ticked up 0.8%, yet all three components declined year over year as CNC warned of a pessimistic fourth quarter with only temporary relief from seasonal sales.