Overview
- Conab links the crop-year estimate to expanded planting, with cultivated area rising 2.6% to 83.9 million hectares and production concentrated in the Center-South at about 84%.
- Soybeans remain the leading crop, with Conab forecasting 176.1 million tons for 2025/26 and IBGE estimating 166.1 million tons for 2025, both series highs.
- Corn area increases but output declines in Conab's view, with three harvests totaling 138.9 million tons as irregular rain, hail and dry spells cut productivity, especially in the South and Minas Gerais.
- IBGE's third prognostic lifts its 2026 outlook to 339.8 million tons yet still points to a 1.8% drop from 2025 driven mainly by lower maize, sorghum, rice, cotton and wheat estimates, with soy edging higher.
- Conab signals robust market balance, expecting exports near 41.5 million tons and higher domestic use of corn for ethanol pushing total consumption to about 90.6 million tons in 2025.