Brazil Focus Survey Trims 2025 Inflation View to 4.55% as Ibovespa Tops 150,000 Before Copom

Overview

• Banco Central’s weekly Focus report marked a sixth straight cut to the 2025 IPCA forecast, now 4.55%, just above the 4.5% upper bound of the inflation target range.
• Key medians were steady, with GDP growth at 2.16% for 2025, the Selic at 15% at year‑end, and the dollar at R$5.41, as long‑term inflation expectations for 2028 eased to 3.5%.
• Markets widely expect the Copom to hold the Selic at 15% on Nov. 4–5, with attention turning to guidance on the timing and conditions for eventual rate cuts.
• The Ibovespa briefly surpassed 150,000 points for the first time, extending recent gains on supportive external cues and domestic earnings optimism.
• The real firmed as the spot dollar closed near R$5.3574, while the U.S. government shutdown kept official data scarce and shifted focus to private PMIs and Federal Reserve speeches.