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8h ago

Brazil Focus Survey Cuts Inflation Forecasts Again for 2025–2026

The survey’s medians serve as a guide for rate policy.

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IPCA-15 em 0,25%: inflação mantém meta do Executivo pelo segundo mês

Overview

  • The median IPCA forecast for 2025 fell to 4.32%, marking a seventh straight weekly decline in the year’s final Focus report.
  • The 2026 IPCA projection edged down to 4.05%, while 2027 and 2028 stayed anchored at 3.80% and 3.50% for the eighth week in a row.
  • GDP growth expectations were unchanged at 2.26% for 2025 and 1.80% for 2026.
  • The dollar outlook moved to R$5.44 at end-2025 from R$5.43, with R$5.50 maintained for end-2026.
  • The Selic ended 2025 at 15%, and the Focus median points to 12.25% at end-2026.