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yesterday

Brazil Focus Survey Brings 2025 Inflation Within Target, Slightly Lifts 2026 Outlook

Markets now expect high rates to ease gradually through 2026.

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Mercado prevê queda dos juros e desaceleração do PIB em ano eleitoral
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Overview

  • Median IPCA forecast for 2025 fell to 4.31%, staying below the 4.5% ceiling after eight consecutive weekly declines.
  • The 2026 inflation median ticked up to 4.06%, while projections held at 3.80% for 2027 and 3.50% for 2028.
  • The Selic is projected to drop from 15% to 12.25% by end‑2026, then to 10.50% in 2027 and 9.75% in 2028.
  • Analysts kept 2026 GDP growth at 1.8% and the year‑end dollar at R$5.50, indicating a broadly stable macro backdrop.
  • Sharp declines in staple food prices helped cool headline inflation in 2025, as services and regulated items led gains and election and climate risks remained in focus.