Brazil Finance Ministry Trims 2025 GDP Forecast to 2.2%, Lowers Inflation Outlook

Overview

• The official IPCA projection for 2025 was cut to 4.6%, which still sits above the CMN’s 4.5% ceiling.
• Agriculture was revised up to 9.5% growth for 2025, while industry was nudged to 1.3% and services to 1.9%.
• The report highlights a tariff shock from the United States, with exports to the U.S. down US$2.5 billion from August to October, a 24.9% drop year over year.
• The SPE also lowered projections for core IPCA to 4.7%, INPC to 4.5%, and IGP‑DI to 1.4%, citing a stronger real, softer wholesale prices, ample global supply, and December’s yellow energy tariff.
• The Boletim Macrofiscal feeds into Brazil’s bimonthly revenue‑and‑expense report as the SPE projects 2025 gross debt at 79.54% of GDP and a primary deficit of R$ 70.64 billion, with revenues described as resilient.