Overview
- The presidential runoff between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro takes place on Sunday, October 25, in an extremely close race with recent Datafolha polls showing a tie.
- Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round with about 47 percent to Lula’s 45 percent and is campaigning on a hard‑line security platform that includes building hundreds of thousands of new prison places and pardoning his convicted father if elected.
- Lula has shifted tactics since the first round by advancing social payments, offering one‑off business payouts and free weekend buses, and mounting a bigger digital push to boost turnout among millions who skipped the first vote.
- Right‑wing gains in both chambers of Congress raise the prospect that a Bolsonaro presidency could push constitutional changes and weaken judicial checks, while Lula’s re‑election would likely maintain current environmental protections that helped cut Amazon deforestation.
- The campaign has seen mass rallies, a heated TV duel, and active legal fights over social‑media treatment that prompted court orders for equal treatment by Meta, making platform decisions and turnout vital factors in the final result.