Overview
- The presidential runoff is set for Sunday, October 25, and polls published this week show a razor‑thin contest between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro.
- Gerp, which most accurately predicted the first round, projects Bolsonaro ahead by four points in valid votes while Quaest’s O Globo poll shows a one‑point gap that falls inside its margin of error.
- After finishing behind on October 4, Lula has launched a late campaign push that includes mass rallies, selfie videos and high‑cost policy promises such as shorter workweeks and debt relief aimed at informal workers.
- Bolsonaro’s campaign has consolidated right‑wing endorsements, strong support among evangelical voters and heavy online advertising that helped lift his first‑round vote share.
- The race is highly polarized and unsettled because poll methods differ and right‑leaning voters are hard to measure, so small shifts in turnout or undecided voters could determine the winner.