Overview
- Three major polls (Datafolha, Quaest, Atlas/Bloomberg) show a virtually tied first round and make a second round on October 25 the most likely result.
- President Lula used the final week of the campaign to push measures aimed at low‑income voters, including a provisional ban on online sports betting, a relaunch of the Desenrola debt program, and a 15% increase to Bolsa Família.
- New revelations in the 'Master' case say Senator Flavio Bolsonaro traveled on a jet linked to banker Daniel Vorcaro and sought contact with Vorcaro days before his detention, allegations Flavio denies.
- The race is split by region and demography, with Lula strong in the Northeast and Flavio leading in São Paulo and Rio; Minas Gerais remains a key swing state and minor‑party supporters hold the balance.
- High and nearly equal rejection rates for both candidates make turnout, late swing by supporters of smaller candidates, possible further disclosures, and any TV debate performance the decisive variables for the final outcome.