Overview

• Brazil’s monetary authority trimmed its 2025 GDP forecast to 2.0% and set 2026 at 1.5%, citing higher U.S. tariffs and signs of third‑quarter cooling, with stronger agriculture offset by weaker industry.
• The September Relatório de Política Monetária put 2025 IPCA at 4.8% and the probability of breaching the upper tolerance that year at 71% under the continuous targeting regime.
• Preliminary inflation (IPCA-15) rose 0.48% in September, driven by a 12.17% jump in residential electricity after the Itaipu bonus ended and the red-flag tariff, while food prices fell for a fourth month.
• Sectoral revisions lifted 2025 agropecuária growth to about 9% and cut industry to around 1%, and the BC noted moderated household consumption despite a resilient labor market.
• In the BC’s Pre-Copom survey, 58% of analysts expect the trade war to have a net disinflationary effect, and futures rates eased only slightly as a hawkish BC tone and stronger U.S. data capped relief.