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Brazil Can Double Biofuels by 2050 Without Deforestation, Study Finds

Researchers say success depends on higher-yield feedstocks under rigorous land monitoring.

Overview

  • The Iema report, supported by Observatório do Clima, concludes expansion can rely on degraded pastures rather than new clearing.
  • The study identifies about 56 million hectares of degraded pasture recoverable for agriculture, with 20–35 million hectares available for biofuel feedstocks.
  • Modeled demand rises from 102 to 221 Mtep by 2050 under a pathway consistent with a 92% emissions cut by 2035 and a zero-deforestation target by 2030.
  • Soybean-dependent biodiesel scenarios are deemed unsustainable, requiring roughly 97 million hectares and heightening risks to food production and natural regeneration.
  • Recommendations include prioritizing high-yield options such as macaúba, scaling second-generation ethanol, diversifying into green diesel and SAF, and enforcing incentives, monitoring, and supply-chain traceability ahead of COP30 debates.