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Brazil Business Confidence Edges Higher in September as Near-Term Outlook Hits Pandemic-Era Low

High borrowing costs are weighing on the three‑month outlook, pushing expectations to their weakest level since 2020.

Overview

  • The FGV Ibre Business Confidence Index (ICE) rose 0.5 point to 89.9, remaining below the neutral 100 level.
  • The Current Situation Index (ISA-E) increased 1.1 points to 93.8, with business satisfaction up to 93.1 and present demand at 94.6.
  • The Expectations Index (IE-E) fell 0.3 point to 85.9, its fourth straight decline and the lowest reading since June 2020.
  • Short‑term demand expectations for the next three months dropped 1.6 points to 82.3, while the six‑month outlook improved 1.1 points to 89.9.
  • On a three‑month moving average, confidence continued to slide by 0.8 point, and FGV Ibre’s Aloisio Campelo Jr. cited high interest rates as the main headwind with possible fiscal measures seen as a potential support.