Brazil Braces for a Rain-Soaked, Warmer Summer as Forecasters Flag Early January Cold Front

Overview

• INMET’s January outlook shows above-average rainfall across much of the North and parts of the South, with drier pockets in the center-south Northeast, center-north Southeast and eastern Center-West.
• MetSul projects frequent, intense summer rains nationwide, with seasonal totals exceeding 400 mm in most areas and 700–1,100 mm across the North and Center-West.
• Temperatures are forecast to run above normal in nearly all regions in January, with departures up to about 1°C in hotspots such as Tocantins and southern Piauí.
• The first cold air mass of 2026 is forecast to reach Rio Grande do Sul on Jan. 3, bringing 50–80 km/h gusts in the South and a localized frost risk around Jan. 12.
• NOAA readings on Dec. 31 confirmed a weak La Niña (Niño 3.4 at −0.7°C), and MetSul expects a shift toward ENSO-neutral by late January or February.