Brazil Books Record $349 Billion in Exports and $68.3 Billion Trade Surplus as Inflation Outlook Improves

Overview

• Market medians in the Banco Central’s Focus survey put IPCA at 4.31% for 2025 and 4.06% for 2026, with analysts citing broad disinflation led by cheaper food items.
• The Focus path projects the Selic easing from 15% at end‑2025 to 12.25% by December 2026, with GDP growth seen at 1.8% in 2026 and the dollar near R$5.50.
• Official MDIC/Secex data confirm record 2025 exports of about US$348.7–349.0 billion and a US$68.3 billion surplus, including a record December surplus of US$9.6 billion as imports rose 6.7% on the year.
• Brazil’s exports to the United States fell 6.6% in 2025, which Secex’s Herlon Brandão said was not fully explained by U.S. tariffs, while sales to China (+6.0%), the EU (+3.2%) and Argentina (+31.4%) increased.
• Markets tracked geopolitical moves after the U.S. operation against Venezuela, with defense shares and oil moving, the dollar closing at R$5.379 (−0.48%), the Ibovespa up about 1%, and foreign investors posting a R$25.5 billion net inflow to B3 in 2025.