Overview
- Brazil's trade minister said this week that Washington has promised to send a written term of reference indicating the sectors where the United States wants tariff reductions and that Brazil expects to receive it between this week and next.
- The U.S. has already imposed a 25% surcharge on selected Brazilian goods for alleged unfair commercial practices and a separate 12.5% surcharge tied to forced-labor concerns, and those measures can be applied together.
- The September Geneva meeting opened a 60-day window for bilateral agreement before either side can ask the World Trade Organization for a dispute panel, so the U.S. document will set the timetable for offer-and-counteroffer bargaining.
- Brazil has activated domestic responses by starting formal steps on a Reciprocity Law to allow countermeasures and by sanctioning a National Policy of Critical and Strategic Minerals to protect priority supply chains such as lithium and nickel.
- Beyond tariffs, the dispute could affect exporters in sectors cited by U.S. officials—digital payments, ethanol and parts of the minerals and battery supply chain—and observers should watch Brazil's reply to the U.S. text and any move to request a WTO panel.