Brazil Activity Surprises in November With Retail Jump and IBC‑Br Gain Driving Selic Repricing

Overview

• Retail sales rose 1.0% month over month in November, beating forecasts, with seven of eight categories higher and Black Friday cited as a key tailwind; the broader measure advanced 0.7%.
• The Central Bank’s IBC‑Br, a monthly GDP proxy, increased 0.7% from October, with industry and services up and agriculture down, leaving 12‑month growth at 2.4%.
• Equities set a new nominal record as the Ibovespa closed at 165,568 after touching 166,070 intraday, while the dollar swung above R$5.40 before ending at R$5.368.
• Futures rates climbed across the curve after the data and a sizable fixed‑rate Treasury auction, reducing the market‑implied probability of an immediate Selic cut.
• Caution persisted as CNC projected sub‑2% retail growth for 2025 and regulators ordered the liquidation of CBSF/Reag, with investigations linked to Banco Master still in focus.