Overview

• BP now expects third‑quarter upstream production to rise versus Q2, reversing prior guidance for a slight decline, with gains led by U.S. onshore and Gas & Low Carbon operations.
• Refining indicator margins improved to about $15.8 per barrel, adding an estimated $300–$400 million to results, partially offset by Whiting refinery downtime and environmental compliance costs.
• BP signaled a weak oil trading outcome for the quarter, while gas marketing and trading were described as average and lower realized gas prices are set to reduce results by roughly $100 million.
• Post‑tax impairments are projected between $200 million and $500 million and exploration write‑offs are about $100 million higher than in the prior quarter.
• Net debt is expected to be broadly flat at around $26 billion despite a $1.2 billion hybrid bond redemption and roughly $1 billion higher income tax payments, with final Q3 figures due November 4.