Overview

• Upstream production is now expected to be higher quarter-on-quarter, reversing prior guidance, with stronger U.S. bpx gas output and improved gas and low‑carbon operations driving the increase.
• The company says its oil trading result for the quarter will be weak, while gas trading is described as average.
• Refining margins improved, with the refining indicator at $15.8 per barrel versus $11.9 in Q2, estimated to add $0.3–$0.4 billion despite an outage at the Whiting refinery and environmental compliance costs.
• Net debt is projected to remain broadly flat at about $26 billion after redeeming $1.2 billion of hybrid bonds and paying roughly $1 billion more in income taxes, partly offset by working capital releases.
• Post‑tax impairments are forecast at $200–$500 million and exploration write‑offs about $100 million above Q2, with the company maintaining full‑year capital spending guidance and divestments weighted to Q4.