Overview

• In its Current Trajectory, BP sees global oil demand reaching 103.4 million barrels per day in 2030 before declining to 83 million by 2050.
• A Below‑2°C pathway has oil demand peaking this year at 102.2 million barrels per day and dropping to 33.8 million by 2050.
• BP projects natural gas demand rising to about 4,800 billion cubic metres by 2040 and global LNG exports reaching roughly 900 bcm by 2035.
• The outlook warns the world is unlikely to meet a 2050 net‑zero goal and would overshoot a 2°C carbon budget in the early 2040s on current trends.
• BP has shifted capital toward upstream oil and gas at roughly $10 billion a year, cut clean‑energy spending by more than $5 billion, and plans multiple new projects to lift output by 2030.