Overview

• Bowman said that sustained inflation near the Fed’s 2% goal would justify lowering rates at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting to realign policy with a neutral stance.
• Governor Christopher Waller expressed similar sentiments, suggesting early easing would help counter mounting risks to employment.
• Bowman noted that firms’ preemptive inventory stockpiling has blunted the expected inflationary impact of President Trump’s tariffs.
• The CME Group’s FedWatch gauge shows a 23% probability of a rate cut in July with odds rising to 78% by September.
• Treasury yields fell after Bowman’s speech, reflecting market confidence in an accelerated shift toward looser monetary policy.